In some high-risk areas, ocean warming and climate change threaten the insurability of catastrophe risk. This is one of the conclusions of a research report issued today by the Climate Risks and Insurance working group of international insurance think tank, The Geneva Association.

In March of this year, the newly christened Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) 2.0 hosted a workshop on the medium-term outlook for the frequency of hurricane landfalls in the RMS v11.0 risk model. According to this model, the computed risk for hurricanes over the medium-term (next 5 years) increased more than 100% in some regions, which forces insurance companies to hold more capital. This has direct consequences for Bermuda’s (re)insurance industry.

As society begins to see more evidence of global climate change—a rise in ocean temperatures and acidity, an increase in both the number and frequency of extreme weather events, and declining glaciers and Artic Sea ice, among other trends—coastal communities around the world are seeking ways to identify and mitigate the risks posed by a rapidly changing ocean. Doing so will require the knowledge and skills from experts in a wide range of fields, including risk analysis, oceanography, environmental security, and law.

Research on coastal sediments, funded in part by BIOS’s Risk Prediction Initiative, shows that prehistoric hurricanes along the northern East Coast of the United States were likely more frequent and intense than those that have hit within recorded history.  The hurricanes that battered New England in the first millennium were produced in part by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.  By looking to the past, these data can help scientists better predict the frequency and intensity of future hurricanes as the ocean continues to warm due to climate change.

Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America and former BIOS trustee, recently went on record saying that the industry he represents is, at its core, based in science. “It’s critical that the industry be knowledgeable about developments from the science community that reflect increasing knowledge about climate and weather.”

Doctoral student Pinelopi Loizou of Cyprus spent twelve weeks this summer working at BIOS with mentor Mark Guishard, a meteorologist by training and project manager of the BIOS Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI), to investigate the topic of hurricane variability using Bermuda as a study site.